Fear of the machine, rage against the machine? Why we are so afraid of AI in recruiting (and what could be done about it)

A new study from Germany shows that the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in job application processes is widely rejected and generally stirs up negative emotions in potential applicants. There were also numerous objections raised by the respondents. Depending on the context, fears of programmed bias or the negligent handling of personal data may well be justified. In principle, however, it would be well possible to dispel many of these concerns if employers and software providers made more efforts to ensure transparency and explainability in the use of AI in recruiting. In addition, it would be useful to have more comparative studies on the respective performance of humans and machines in order to curb the obvious resentment towards AI in the HR sector. Since the use of artificial intelligence in the recruitment process will be unstoppable, we are going to break down the massive black box around HR systems and clarify which requirements have to be fulfilled for a more successful deployment of algorithms & co.

Fear of the unknown

In total, around 65% of the study participants associate negative things with the idea of AI in recruiting. Since this represents a clear majority, it is especially interesting to consider the underlying reasons for this result. About two thirds of all respondents show no trust in decisions made within a hiring process using AI. The biggest weakness cited is that an automated process is impersonal. At the same time, however, only a small minority (6.3%) realized any contact with AI in recruiting in the past – although this is already a reality in many places. [1]

 

Facts and figures directly taken from the study

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All of these findings point to one central problem: As long as there is no transparency regarding the topic of artificial intelligence in HR, it is impossible to convince job seekers and employees of the benefits of such processes. The poor image of AI in the recruiting process is therefore primarily due to a fear of the unknown, which in turn manifests itself in two ways. Respondents do not seem to know exactly how AI-based decisions are made. Neither do they realize how these decisions will affect the actual application process and their chances of being hired.

The X factor in AI

It is up to both software companies and employers to clarify this so that candidates are more aware of where and how artificial intelligence is used in HR. There are still many recruitment tools on the market whose machine-learning-based results cannot be adequately explained, replicated, or corrected by the developers when needed. As a result, such black-box processes also deny applicants a genuine option of consent for the collection, processing, storage, and deletion of personal data, which can lead to serious legal problems. Thus, in many places, both the requirements of the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) AI principle of transparency are not being met.

The answer to this problem is provided by so-called explainable artificial intelligence, XAI for short. In recent years, it has established itself as a proven approach to break open the black box around systems based on deep learning and artificial neural networks. At JANZZ.technology, we have been working with such explainable models for quite some time and, thanks to their combination with ontology-based semantic matching, we deliver numerous powerful solutions for all HR and labor market management processes.  It is of great importance to us that we make our services easy to understand and provide customers with the necessary knowledge about the mechanisms and processes behind our technologies. Our matching tool JANZZsme!, for example, does not simply deliver a rather meaningless matching score between a candidate’s profile and the job posting. Rather, it dissects all criteria into sub-aspects such as skills, language skills or experience, which all have their own, visible score and explain the results in a comprehensible way for both applicants and employers.

A large number of respondents expressed their desire for a personal contact person for queries during the hiring process. As we can see, this demand can be met to a large extent by means of explainable technologies and transparent information about them on the part of HR departments. In response to the finding that AI-based processes in the application process are slandered as being impersonal, it should be noted above all that today, final decisions still lie with a recruiter and this will also remain the case in the years to come. According to our expertise and many years of experience, there still is no fully automated hiring process anywhere that completely excludes human intervention from the process. It is therefore understandable, but unfounded, to fear that you as an individual will be reduced to nothing more than a string of ones and zeros during the application process. Likewise, your soft skills profile will not be completely disregarded.

Human versus machine: A comparison

In fact, we should ask why there is such a desire for human influence in the recruitment process in the first place when, paradoxically, half of the respondents say they fear the embedding of human biases in AI programming. [1] Moreover, the few meaningful comparative studies available on the performance of humans and machines by no means indicate that the former make better decisions in application processes. Another advantage of XAI in the area of recruiting is therefore that with it we get a better picture of the actual performance of automated processes and can quantitatively compare these results with those of manual processes.

Allow us to outline a short example from one of our own use cases. The assignment was to conduct a comparative POC for an international organization to find the most promising candidates for their highly coveted junior positions. For comparison, the selection was also made by the experienced HR managers who usually perform this process “manually” every year for a period of several weeks. Key parameters to be considered when comparing the results included the avoidance of bias, achieving the highest possible efficiency and, of course, finding the most suitable candidates.

The result is likely to surprise a majority of participants from the study described at the beginning: Firstly, when using our APIs, matching tools and parsers the processing time was reduced to a fraction of that of the manual process (3 days vs. 12-14 weeks). Interestingly, a quick process was the third-most frequently mentioned criterion for a positive candidate experience in the study. [1] Secondly, there was no bias at all in JANZZ’s XAI-based decision-making, while the HR managers’ choices showed massive biases in the variables origin, gender, and language – not surprising, given the myriad forms of (unconscious) bias that shape the manual hiring process. To be sure, our replicable process based on binding criteria meant that the objectively best candidates were selected and those did not always automatically meet specific diversity and inclusion expectations. But even such requirements are scalable if desired and can then be applied in a rule-based and consistent manner, provided that this decision is also communicated transparently to applicants. Surprisingly, in the study only 14% noticed one of the main benefits of XAI-based matching. Namely that it makes it easier and more reliable to find a job that actually matches your skills, competences and education. [1] For this purpose, our technology is based on multilingual semantic matching. This approach provides a flexible solution to the problems posed by an increasingly heterogeneous composition of knowledge, terminology and information in CVs and job advertisements, in turn making the matching process a whole lot more efficient.

 

Facts and figures from the JANZZ POC

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Overall, our comparison clearly shows results in favor of AI. In order to reduce the existing fears of many potential employees, it would undoubtedly be valuable to have evaluations such as ours conducted on a broader and more regular basis. Still, the following conclusion can already be drawn from what we know by now: In terms of bias in the application process, AI enriched with deep learning and an underlying knowledge-rich system definitely does not perform worse than humans (see also link in last section). On the contrary, it even brings potential advantages such as an expedited process and, above all, objectivity. Moreover, the use of AI in HR is already gaining ground at an unstoppable pace. That’s not surprising, we’d say. Or does anyone see an alternative to cope with the increasing participation rate and movement in the labor market? Due to all these facts, at JANZZ.technology we adhere to the principle “No artificial intelligence without human intelligence”. XAI-based systems provide indispensable help in the tedious and costly pre-processes of manual recruitment and allow human recruiters to focus on the essential; finding the top candidates.

 

The capabilities of AI for HR go far beyond the hiring process, as it can also be used in a company’s strategic workforce planning, for example. If you would like to learn more about our broad range of services or get information about what JANZZ.technology can do for your specific needs, please contact us at info@janzz.technology or via contact form, or visit our product page for an overview of all our solutions. We also invite you to listen to our podcast in which we talk about interesting, related topics. In the current episode, for instance, we discuss the distinction between systems that are “knowledge-lean” and those that are “knowledge-rich” – a crucial difference, if you ask us!

 

[1] IU International University of Applied Sciences. 2022. AI in Recruiting: Emotions, Views, Expectations. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Candidate Experience. URL: https://www.iu.de/en/research/studies/ki-in-recruiting-study/

Trond Henning Olesen

Chào mừng Ông Trond Henning Olesen với tư cách là Phó Giám đốc Tích hợp Khách hàng và Kinh doanh Giải pháp mới của chúng tôi.

JANZZ.technology xin trân trọng thông báo rằng Ông Trond Henning Olesen sẽ gia nhập JANZZ.technology với tư cách là Phó Giám đốc Tích hợp Khách hàng và Kinh doanh Giải pháp, hoạt động tại San Francisco. Ông sẽ là người chịu trách nhiệm về tất cả các tài khoản ở Châu Mỹ, khu vực EMEA và Châu Á.

Trond là một chiến lược gia, nhà công nghệ và là một người đam mê khởi nghiệp có nhiều kinh nghiệm. Với hơn 20 năm kinh nghiệm trên toàn cầu về lãnh đạo và bán hàng trong ngành công nghệ, cũng như bằng Tiến sĩ Khoa học Máy tính, ông có bề dày thành tích ấn tượng trong việc xây dựng thành công các nhóm giao dịch trực tiếp với khách hàng, tung ra các dự án mới và mang lại hiệu quả hoạt động cao.

Trong suốt sự nghiệp của mình, Trond đã xây dựng các doanh nghiệp từ khi khởi nghiệp cho đến khi IPO thành công, đạt được mức tăng trưởng hàng đầu, xoay chuyển nhiều tình thế, với sự hài lòng cao của khách hàng trong các điều kiện thị trường đa dạng. Ông Trond đã quản lý nhiều tài khoản lớn, các dự án phức tạp trên toàn cầu, cũng như lãnh đạo nhóm một cách hiệu quả, mang lại những thay đổi và cải tiến quan trọng trong tư duy, quy trình và chiến lược khách hàng. Với chuyên môn sâu rộng về kỹ thuật và kinh doanh của mình, Trond đã tư vấn cho các công ty như LinkedIn và Purisma, huấn luyện nhân sự cấp cao C-level, hỗ trợ họ cải thiện các quy trình, tổ chức, và nhân sự của mình. Gần đây nhất, ông đồng sáng lập công ty khởi nghiệp VeraScore ở Thung lũng Silicon và làm việc trong vai trò Giám đốc Công nghệ. Tại đây, ông chịu trách nhiệm quản lý các nhóm kỹ thuật, tham gia phát triển và là trưởng nhóm kỹ thuật trong tất cả các chương trình bán hàng.

Ông Trond vô cùng hào hứng với công nghệ đối sánh việc làm và các giải pháp thị trường lao động, dựa trên cơ sở trí tuệ nhân tạo do JANZZ.technology, công ty có trụ sở tại Thụy Sỹ, cung cấp cho các doanh nghiệp và tổ chức chính phủ trên toàn thế giới. Trong thời điểm này, khi thị trường lao động chứng kiến những thay đổi lớn về cấu trúc, Trond rất phấn khởi với cơ hội làm việc với các khách hàng trên toàn cầu, cung cấp cho họ các giải pháp kỹ thuật số được thiết kế hoàn hảo dựa trên nhu cầu, nhằm quản lý nhân tài và thị trường lao động một cách hiệu quả.

“Với sự kết hợp giữa nền tảng kỹ thuật vững chắc và chuyên môn sâu rộng về chiến lược và khách hàng, Trond là một sự bổ sung tuyệt vời cho đội ngũ của chúng tôi” – Stefan Winzenried, Giám đốc điều hành của JANZZ.technology cho biết. “Chúng tôi sẽ tiếp tục cung cấp các giải pháp tiên tiến, chất lượng, Trond sẽ thúc đẩy sự phát triển của JANZZ và củng cố sứ mệnh phục vụ khách hàng tốt hơn nữa của chúng tôi. Chúng tôi rất vui mừng khi có anh ấy cùng đồng hành.”

Welcoming Trond Henning Olesen as our new VP of Customer Integration and Solution Sales

Trond Henning Olesen

We are excited to announce that Trond Henning Olesen will be joining JANZZ.technology as our new VP of Customer Integration and Solution Sales, based in San Francisco. He will be responsible for all accounts in the Americas, EMEA and Asia.

Trond is a highly experienced strategist, technologist, and startup enthusiast. Leveraging over 20 years of global experience in leadership and sales in the tech industry, as well as a PhD in Computer Science, Trond brings an impressive track record of successfully building customer-facing teams, launching new ventures, and delivering operational impact.

Throughout his career, Trond has built businesses from startup to successful IPO, achieved top growth, turnarounds and high customer satisfaction in diverse market conditions. He has also delivered major accounts and managed complex large projects across the globe, as well as effectively leading teams to bring about fundamental changes and improvements in strategy, process, and customer focus. With his extensive technical and business expertise, Trond has consulted for companies such as LinkedIn and Purisma, personally coaching C-level personnel and assisting them in improving their organization, processes and people. Most recently, he co-founded and served as CTO of Silicon Valley startup VeraScore, managing the technical team, participating in development and being the technical lead on all sales efforts.

Trond is enthusiastic about the highly performant AI-driven job matching technology and labor market solutions offered by Swiss-based JANZZ.technology to businesses and government institutions around the world. In these times of major structural changes of the labor market, Trond is energized by the opportunity to work with global clients to provide them with perfectly tailored digital solutions for effective talent and labor market management.

“With his deep blend of a strong technical background and expertise in strategy and customer success, Trond is an outstanding addition to our team,” states Stefan Winzenried, CEO of JANZZ.technology. “As we continue to deliver quality, cutting-edge solutions, Trond will accelerate JANZZ’ growth and strengthen our mission to better serve our clients. We are thrilled to have him on board.”

Strengthening the economy through advanced labor market information systems

janzztechnology_lmis

Today’s changing world places many complex challenges to labor market governance and management: the slowdown of the global economy, the structural shifts and evolving skill demands connected to widespread digitalization, as well as increasingly dynamic career paths with more frequent job switching, geographical mobility and flexibility, and multiple transitioning between education/training and employment.

Advanced labor market information systems are key to improving labor market efficiency

To address these challenges, many governments have established active labor market polices (ALMPs) and public employment services (PES) to help workers find jobs and firms fill vacancies. However, due to the complexity and individual set of challenges in any given labor market, there is no simple answer as to how public employment services should be set up and organized. But a well-thought-out information strategy and infrastructure is certainly critical to the success of any PES. If nothing else, the most recent disruptions have shown that effective ALMPs and PES require agile and flexible frameworks to successfully adapt to rapid and at times dramatic shifts in their labor markets. But even the most agile of frameworks is only useful if it includes a system to identify labor market issues as they arise.

Identifying such issues relies critically on the availability and quality of data, information and analysis. Therefore, establishing an advanced labor market information system (LMIS) is an integral step towards more efficient and targeted employment and labor policies by delivering accurate, relevant and timely information to inform design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of policies. According to the World Bank, advanced LMIS encompass institutional arrangements between key stakeholders (e.g. policy makers and the education system), collaborative partnerships with private sector actors and advanced technology solutions to gather, validate, analyze, and distribute information related to the labor market that is relevant, reliable, useful, and as comprehensive and up to date as possible.

Combining traditional labor market information with real-time data

Traditionally, labor market information (LMI) was primarily gathered from censuses, surveys, case studies, and administrative data. However, this traditional LMI has a disadvantage that is increasingly cumbersome: lag time. In an ever-faster changing world this carries risks such as policies being outdated before they can be implemented, rendering them ineffective if not obsolete. Therefore, an effective LMIS should also incorporate real-time (big) data from additional sources such as online job portals and networking sites. This type of data is not only much more up to date, it also typically contains more detailed information including job activities and requirements regarding education and skills. However, real-time LMI based on online job advertising data also has significant shortcomings: Apart from the challenges of duplicates and inconsistent levels of detail, it tends to be incomplete. Not all jobs are posted online, in particular, this type of data rarely captures the informal sector and is also often biased toward certain industries or occupations. In addition, the data may be distorted by ghost vacancies posted by non-hiring companies that want to cast a broad net for talent. Accordingly, real-time LMI is a complement to, rather than a substitute for traditional LMI.

Empowerment through interoperability

In addition to supporting policy makers and researchers, a strong LMIS should also provide additional services such as job matching, career and skills guidance and government support services through a government-managed online platform with interconnecting subsystems tailored to the different users. In this way, the LMIS strengthens the functioning of the labor market by helping all stakeholders in the labor market including workers, students, firms, and practitioners to make informed choices on a variety of topics such as job search and hiring strategies, curriculum design, career planning and training investments, and more.

International examples of modern LMIS

Worldwide, several countries offer examples of advanced LMIS incorporating LMI from traditional and big data sources and where the information feeds both into and from multiple interconnecting public interfaces to provide comprehensive, verified LMI for research and policymaking as well as job-matching, career guidance and skills development services. These sophisticated services include state-of-the-art tools and technologies such as AI/ML and big data analysis.

For instance, in Korea, information in the LMIS is used by the Korea Employment Information Service (KEIS) to monitor and evaluate public policies and generate analyses and forecasting for stakeholders such as job seekers, employers, researchers, and policy makers. Data is drawn from national statistics, surveys related to employment and skills, and databases from various interconnected KEIS networks, including HRD-net, a job-training platform, and Work-net. Originally established in 1998 as a publicly managed job-search portal by Korea’s Ministry of Employment and Labor, Work-net now provides comprehensive employment information and support services, including job matching and information on occupational outlooks, working conditions, and skills demand, as well as feeding user-generated data back to KEIS. With the progress of technology, it has added mobile services (2010), big data services (2018), chatbot services (2019) and AI-based job matching services (2020). [1]

The Norwegian LMIS also comprises interconnected subsystems that combine services for labor market supply and demand with data for decision makers and policy makers. The Norwegian Labor and Welfare Administration’s (NAV) online platform for job search and matching services, Arbeidsplassen.nav.no, has been using AI technology since 2019. It contains job advertisements both posted directly on the platform by employers and imported from external, privately managed job portals, as well as a CV database of job seekers, providing a comprehensive overview of the labor market. The system also has access to extensive information on the Norwegian education landscape to enhance the accuracy of job matching and career planning services. This modern digital platform provides automated and highly user-friendly services, and continuously self improves thanks to sophisticated machine learning algorithms in the backend. During the first wave of the pandemic, the system proved scalable by a factor of 8–10 within just a few days to deal with the surge in registrations caused by the dramatic disruptions in the labor market.

The technology behind the semantic search and matching engine and the underlying ontology of Arbeidsplassen.nav.no is provided by JANZZ.technology. JANZZ has been collaborating with several public employment services across the globe to assist their LMIS development. Our services range from state-of-the-art AI-based solutions to gather real-world labor market data and transform it into smart labor market intelligence – including job and resume parsing and automated classification and contextualization of job and skills data – over intuitive and powerful analysis and dashboarding tools that generate actionable insights including skill or workforce gap analyses, training and career guidance or semantic job matching, to designing entire system architectures from scratch. Visit our website and discover the advanced solutions we have created for public employment services or watch the explainer video for our integrated labor market solution JANZZilms!.

 

[1] https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/35378

Is Vietnam the next Singapore?

JANZZ.technology Viet Nam

Vietnam hopes to achieve high-income status by 2045. The country’s vibrancy is evident by investments in innovation and technology adoption that spur an innovation-driven private sector to build resilient businesses. Vietnam had a GDP per capita of $500 (today’s dollars) in 1985 which was one of the lowest in the world, and by 2021 it had already created a couple billionaire entrepreneurs.[1]

Vietnam’s performance is impressive as it was one of the poorest countries globally that achieved lower middle-income status in under a generation and became a dynamic East Asian economy. Its’ success can be credited to connecting to global value chains and offering favorable conditions to investors—much as it continues to do today according to the Prime Minister of Vietnam.[2] GDP per capita rose three-fold to about $2,800 and poverty drastically declined to less than 2 percent between 2002-2020. The Economist points out “it has been one of the five fastest-growing countries in the world over the past 30 years” ahead of Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines.[3]

Achieving high-income status is an ambitious goal for a frontier market that already knows much about steady growth and global supply chains. Yet it will require 7% growth per year to achieve. Vietnam knows how to sell its goods abroad; trade exceeds 200% of GDP. Additionally, foreign direct investment (FDI) has been much higher than in China or South Korea for the past thirty years. Global companies were attracted by Vietnam’s cheap wages and stable exchange rate fueling a boom economy. But this export trade is mostly driven by foreign companies and not domestic ones.

With COVID-19, Vietnam had early success limiting the virus and GDP growth remained positive, albeit the lowest in three decades at 2.9%.[4] Yet the Delta variant upended the Vietnamese economy with factories shutting down disrupting supply chains for global companies like Nike, LG Electronics, and Samsung. In the end, the country’s growth outlook performed lower than the world average of 6% between 2% and 2.5%. Nevertheless, it was deep linkages to global manufacturing that sustained Vietnam’s economy in the pandemic.

How does Vietnam achieve high-income status? Answer: Better jobs.

As global uncertainty looms, Vietnam is thinking ahead about its’ future jobs landscape. The country knows it’s overly dependent on FDI and domestic firms underperform. Meanwhile, it’s difficult to remain competitive with increasing wages and ever-changing value chains. So, what can Vietnam do?

For a start, there are limits to what foreign firms can do to drive Vietnam’s development.

Vietnam’s economic success is attributed to its’ 50+ million jobs in recent decades. A big push in services and manufacturing reduced poverty in a country where 3 in 4 Vietnamese work in either family farming, household enterprises (unincorporated, non-farm businesses), or uncontracted labor. Economic growth happened because labor productivity increased alongside wages.[5] Yet Vietnam needs to further develop its services sector improving the quality of jobs if it is to achieve high-income status.

There is a strong government push to foster a Vietnamese chaebol system comparable to South Korea’s. Chaebols are the large conglomerates that helped develop South Korea’s new industries, markets, and export production making it one of the Four Asian Tigers. Vietnam already has the Vingroup with operations across education, health, real estate, and tourism. Developing a system of “national champions” may be the way to offset the widening gap between foreign owned firms and domestic ones, which have more barriers to access capital.

Vietnamese firms can also benefit from the growing Asian consumer class. There is a large consumer market waiting to be untapped in the region, especially if Vietnam expands its knowledge intensive services and modernizes its agro-business sector. Perhaps by creating jobs away from more traditional sectors, it can play a role in developing small and medium enterprises that better integrate into the larger economy and enhances supply chain connectivity.

Of course, this is not to say that Vietnam should forget traditional sectors completely. They represent most jobs in the country, about 30 million. Jobs in farming should diversify agricultural output into higher value-added crops and local value chains. And household enterprises must increase the quality of goods and services to remain competitive regionally and globally.

Human capital investments will be key in fostering an agile workforce ready to embrace tomorrow’s jobs. The Vietnamese labor force should build 21st century skills with adequate education and training. Future industries in Vietnam will require new skills sets, ways of working, and business models to export and expand. Automation may also displace jobs and enable others to become more efficient and productive.

It is evident that trade and consumption is already changing and impacting Vietnam. Much like Singapore, it can remain business friendly and competitive by focusing on public-private collaboration, innovation and digital transformation, and connecting qualified workers to the right jobs.

Here at JANZZ.technology we are ready to assist Vietnam towards its 2045 development goals.

 

[1] The Economist. November 27th, 2021 Edition. Vietnam has produced a new class of billionaire entrepreneurs. https://www.economist.com/business/2021/11/27/vietnam-has-produced-a-new-class-of-billionaire-entrepreneurs
[2] World Economic Forum. October 29th, 2021. Prime Minister of Viet Nam Speaks with Global CEOs on Strategic Priorities in Post-Pandemic Era. https://www.weforum.org/press/2021/10/prime-minister-of-viet-nam-speaks-with-global-ceos-on-strategic-priorities-in-post-pandemic-era/
[3] The Economist. September 4th, 2021 Edition. The economy that COVID-19 could not stop. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/08/30/the-economy-that-covid-19-could-not-stop
[4] International Monetary Fund. March 2021. IMF Country Focus: Vietnam: Successfully Navigating the Pandemic. Washington, DC. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2021/03/09/na031021-vietnam-successfully-navigating-the-pandemic
[5] The World Bank. Vietnam’s Future Jobs: Leveraging Mega-Trends for Greater Prosperity (Vol. 2): Overview (English). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/670201533917679996/overview

When it comes to the use of AI in HR, it is past high time


There are numerous constitutional articles, laws, ordinances and regulations according to which companies must conduct their daily activities. And the number of these legal foundations is constantly increasing. A relatively new piece of legislation in Europe is the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation, or GDPR for short, which was adopted in 2016. The aim of this transnational regulation is to standardize the collection, processing, storage and deletion of personal data by private and public actors.  » Read more about: When it comes to the use of AI in HR, it is past high time  »

The Great Resignation or just a Great Misperception?

There have been many “great” waves in economy, especially in the US: the Great Depression (1929–1933), the Great Inflation (1965–1982), the Great Moderation (mid 1980s–2007), the Great Recession (late 2007–2009), and now we have a new one: the Great Resignation. But while the previous “great” events were undoubtedly real and had far-reaching impact on the economy and the labor market, this time round, there is reasonable doubt as to whether this wave of quits really is so great. Despite the huge buzz this catchy term has generated in the media – which is often based on shaky data promoted by data providers whose main interest is self-marketing.

The Great Resignation, a term allegedly coined by Anthony Klotz of Texas A&M University, was originally a prediction. Back in May 2021, Klotz anticipated a rise in quits based on pent-up resignations that hadn’t happened since early 2020 due to the significant job uncertainty brought on by the pandemic. He claimed that these numbers would be multiplied by “pandemic-related epiphanies” about family time, remote work, life and death and so on. Now that the quits numbers really have gone up, his prediction seems to have been turned into a prophecy, with the widespread consensus that it is happening for all the reasons Klotz stated. But there are good reasons to take a more critical view on this thesis, the most pertinent being the glaring lack of reliable evidence to support it.

The lesser resignation

In October 2020, 4.2m workers in the US quit their jobs, which is almost 3% of total employed workers. Viewed as an isolated number, this quits rate has indeed risen significantly over the last 12 months. However, the job openings rate has also increased dramatically to 7% of total employment plus new openings. This 60% increase from pre-pandemic levels far exceeds the numbers of the past two decades. Accordingly, the hires rate increased to a level last seen 20 years ago. If we put the quits into this context, say, by considering the ratios of quits to job openings, the situation looks far less dramatic.

 

The great misperception

 

It certainly makes sense to view these values together, since quits are strongly correlated with job openings: For the available monthly data from 2000 through 2021, the correlation coefficient is 0.82 – higher than for quits with unemployment (-0.77) or hires (0.75). And in relation to job openings, the current quit rate is by no means an outlier. Both the current rates of job openings and of quits are higher than usual, straying away from the typical cluster as shown in the figure below. And yet, their relationship still follows the same pattern as before the pandemic, when these changes could not have been attributed to, say, a desire for life changes newly discovered in lockdown. It thus seems more likely that quits have risen primarily for the more mundane reason that an unusually high number of job opportunities are opening up to workers, i.e., quits are simply at the level we would expect them to be, given the number of job openings. As Josh Bersin put it: Right now, there are just too many jobs and not enough people. And so we are likely seeing a great job hop as opposed to a great resignation. But it is not necessarily about doing something new.

 

The great misperception

 

The lesser wages

Looking at the figures in more detail, we see that of the four (sub)industries most affected by quits, three belong to the by far lowest paying industries: Retail Trade and Leisure and Hospitality. The latter was also the group that experienced exorbitantly high layoff rates at the beginning of the pandemic, and many front-line workers in retail were forced to work under precarious conditions with little to no monetary reward.

 

The great misperception

The great misperception

 

These low-wage workers are hardly quitting to indulge “pandemic-related epiphanies” or “craft careers”. Instead, they have been struggling to make a living since long before the pandemic. And now, with their industries among those with the highest net new job creation in 2021, these workers have a window of opportunity. If you have a job with no security, no appreciation and a salary that is barely enough to survive on, why not quit it for a job that pays $1 an hour more? Especially in a wage band that has experienced close to no growth in the past two decades.

 

The great misperception

 

The lesser reasons

Despite these numbers, much of the news coverage and reports have focused on burnout and remote work as the main drivers of the Great Resignation, claiming that white-collar professionals are shifting their career paths and leaving their jobs for companies that offer work arrangements that better suit their newly found values and preferences. If at all based on data, the most often cited source is LinkedIn. But LinkedIn data is extremely biased towards white-collar professionals. If we take a look at the much more representative data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Surveys, we see that in the largest white-collar industry, professional and business services, quits have risen at less than half the rate for the leisure and hospitality industry – despite an above-average job openings rate. In finance, real estate or information, which includes software, internet and publishing companies, quits are not rising much at all. In other words, employees more likely to be working remotely and thus with an increased risk of (self-reported) burnout are in fact less likely to quit.

Another supposed factor is health concerns related to COVID-19. However, many of the workers with these concerns had already left the workforce in 2020. And although labor force participation rates are still below pre-pandemic levels, they have been increasing steadily since April 2020 for most groups – except for older Americans (unsurprisingly, as the pandemic poses a much higher health risk to older people). But instead of calling them ‘resignations’, these quits could also simply be called retirements.

 

The great misperception

The great misperception

 

The lesser regions

It is also worth noting that, while there is a lot of talk about the Great Resignation being a global phenomenon, it is in fact just talk. At first glance, the situation looks similar in the UK: a high quits rate coupled with a high level of vacancies and fast wage growth. And again, taking a closer look at the figures, resignations as a proportion of job moves are simply back to pre-pandemic levels, with low-skill/low-wage workers driving the surge in quits – presumably for similar reasons as in the US: painfully low wages, bad working conditions and disloyal employers. Rather than quitting for something new (as in rethinking careers), a higher proportion of workers are moving to new jobs in the same industry. Moreover, while there was a surge in wage growth in Q2 of 2021, this figure rapidly decreased back to the level of Q1 over the second half of 2021.

 

The great misperception

The great misperception

The great misperception

The great misperception

The great misperception

 

And the UK is the only other country with any kind of similarity. In Canada, the number of quits is still far below pre-pandemic levels – especially the number of people who left their job because they are dissatisfied. In Japan, the percentage of people who quit their job for this reason has remained comparable to the level in 2015.

In the EU, there is no comparable quits measure. But there is also no other measure that suggests a big rise in resignations. Wage growth across the EU is the lowest ever recorded and the labor force participation rate has returned to pre-pandemic levels, with rates in individual countries like Spain and France even exceeding those levels. According to the latest labor force survey conducted in Spain, the number of voluntary resignations in 2021 is still lower than before the pandemic.

 

The great misperception

The great misperception

 

In Latin America and the Caribbean, the national economies are still reeling from the effects of the pandemic in terms of GDPs bottoming out and unemployment rates going through the roof. In most of these countries, the labor market is still far from recovery. The quality of available jobs has decreased, and the number of weekly hours of paid work is still significantly less than before the pandemic. According to the latest ILO report on Covid and the world of work, this is in fact true generally for low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

 

The great misperception

 

Unsurprisingly, the number of quits has not risen in these countries either. Overall, there is simply no evidence of a big rise in resignations anywhere in the world apart from the US and the UK. Let alone for the reasons promoted by the media.

The great hype

Basically, if you take the time to look at the hard data, there is neither reason to panic, nor to celebrate this not-so-great resignation. For a truly great resignation in the sense conveyed by the media and self-marketing data providers, the majority of workers would need to be in the comfortable position of actually having a choice regarding their lifestyle and consumption needs, and the job that fits those needs. Currently, we are still very far from any such scenario.

What has happened in the US and UK is that low-wage workers who previously had to take whatever work they could get, now have some agency. After a long period of employers exploiting the fact that they had workers on tap and thus hiring on whatever terms they deemed fit, the tables have turned. Jobs paying minimum wage may have to change their pay and benefits to become more attractive. The question is how long it will last. And if it does last, will pay rises and perks be enough? Or will it require more profound changes and rethinking our attitudes to low-wage jobs as a society? More on this in our upcoming whitepaper.